For those of you that don't know, I currently work (or I guess it'd be volunuteer since I don't get paid a dime) at the student radio station on the campus of the University of Texas doing a sports radio show every Wednesday from 3 to 4 PM. I associate with most of the guys outside of the station as well, but no matter how much I consider them to be friends or how much I respect their sports knowledge, I simply cannot understand why several of them have picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL West in 2004. I just cannot envision any scenario where a team that anemic offensively and lacking the prowess from a year ago on the mound can be favored to win their division. It's not like they play in the AL Central. Here are the home run totals from 2004 of their projected infield for 2004:
C Paul Lo Duca - 7
1B Robin Ventura - 14
2B Jolbert Cabrera - 6
3B Adrian Beltre - 23
SS Cesar Izturis - 1
TOTAL - 51
Jim Thome hit 47. Home runs aren't the end all be all to putting up runs, but that's beyond bad. The outfield isn't laced with world beaters either. Shawn Green was hampered by injuries last year, but even if healthy may experience an inordinate amount of walks due to the lack of protection elsewhere. Dave Roberts is the typical "if-only-you-could-steal-first" guy with tons of speed, but without the OBP to match. Juan Encarnacion is a nice addition to the struggling lineup, but he'll be hard pressed to replicate his 94 RBIs from a year ago unless 70 of them are himself. Things will only get funnier in June when they are in an AL park for interleague play and forced to use a Designated Hitter. They may have to change the name to Designated Guy That Will Take Three Pathetic Swings So The Pitcher Can Rest, or DGTWTTPSSTPCR.
Pitching is believed to be the strong suit for this team, but does it remain their saving grace? The loss of Kevin Brown to New York is hardly one to be taken lightly. He takes with him 211 innings of 2.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Newly appointed staff "ace" Hideo Nomo has been putrid this spring and seems to have lost a significant amount of velocity. Odalis Perez remains the premier bargaining chip for any trade talks that center around bringing offense to the Dodgers so any success he has will likely be parlayed into a bad trade for someone like Ken Griffey Jr. Jeff Weaver is a wild card that could return to the success he enjoyed in Detroit or continue to be a headcase good for giving up 5+ runs for every 9 innings pitched. Kaz Ishii does well enough for all the men he puts on base. Had he qualified last year, Ishii's 1.56 WHIP would have placed him ahead of just Jason Jennings (1.65) and Damian Moss (1.67) for worst amongst starting pitchers with 160 or more innings pitched. The final rotation spot sits on the shoulders of rookie Edwin Jackson. The 20-year old righty has been unspectacular in spring, but as of right now will be the fifth starter.
So if not the Dodgers, then who? Certainly not the reigning champion San Francisco Giants. Their lineup is better for one back acne-laced reason only and their pitching is a big question mark with Jason Schmidt and Robb Nen both uncertain and not much to brag about behind them. The Colorado Rockies still have the misfortune of playing in Colorado rendering many pitchers helpless at best and useless at worst. They should post runs per usual, but the Shawn Chacon Experiment as closer is iffy and they trot out a 4th or 5th level starter each day:
Shawn Estes
Jason Jennings
Joe Kennedy
Scott Elarton
Chin-hui Tsao
Maybe the Diamondbacks return to prominence, but that rests solely on the arm of 40-year old Randy Johnson. Another injury-riddled season for Johnson would probably put an end to any playoff hopes the Diamondbacks have. Even if Johnson stays healthy and moves back toward the dominance he and Arizona fans are used to, 24-year old Brandon Webb must avoid a sophomore slump. At this point in time, the back end of the rotation that features Elmer Dessens, Shane Reynolds and Steve Sparks simply cannot be counted on to pick up any slack left by Johnson and Webb. Though old, this lineup contains several parts that will do an adequate job to protect premier 1st baseman Richie Sexson, acquired via trade from the Brewers. Veterans Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finely, and Robert Alomar will take pressure of Sexson throughout the lineup. Oft-doubted Shea Hillenbrand will need to improve on his less-than-stellar Arizona numbers (.267/.302/.482) to shirk the critics. If everything falls correctly, like it did during the World Series run 3 years ago, the Diamondbacks are a contender, but my favorite for the NL West are the San Diego Padres.
The Padres composed a solid balance of youth and age starting with the trade for Brian Giles late last season up through the signing of Jay Payton from Colorado. This isn't a flawless team, though. They lack a true leadoff man and will do it the Billy Beane way with Sean Burroughs leading off for now. The Oakland Athletics let Jeremy Giambi lead off 2 years ago because of his knack for getting on base. He posted .257/.375/.419 before being traded to Philadelphia. Burroughs had moderate success from the leadoff slot in 2003, posting .286/.362/.373 numbers. Unorthodox leadoff man or not, the ability to put runs on the board consistently will likely come down to how healthy Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko can stay in 2004. The two combined for just 180 games in 2003. These premier power sources can make the Padre lineup feared throughout the league if they are able to contribute day in and day out.
Their dynamic staff also intrigued me enough to place them atop the West this season. David Wells, for all his shortcomings, seems to continue to win regardless. He and Sterling Hitchcock sandwich three youngsters that will lead the Padres to the playoffs. Brian Lawrence didn't have a great season last year (10-15, 4.19), but he was dominant in the last two months posting ERAs of 2.53 and 2.78 in August and September. Both Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton look ready to make the leap into bonafide starters in 2004. Though just 22, Peavy was impressive in 2003 with his 12-11 record to go with his 4.11 ERA and 7.21 Ks/9. Eaton managed to stay healthy and put together his best season yet. At 26, the Padres can no longer accept greatness once every three or four starts as progress, he must be a reliable starter. As a fifth starter, Hitchcock is ok. Being left-handed can make you that way and the Padres will only ask for consistent play, something that fifth spot lacked a year ago. A lot of this prediction rides on the health of Trevor Hoffman, too. He pitched just 9 games a year ago. All indications are that Hoffman is as healthy as can be expected and will be available to close for the Padres.
Hmm, what started out as a rant against the Dodgers for their pathetic offense kind of turned into a NL West Preview. I hope you enjoyed. Continue to use this site to view For Rich or Sporer as I've signed up a 30-day trial with TypePad. So far, so good.
