For Rich or Sporer

The Year was 1993...

I love ESPN Classic. Especially during baseball season when they'll just show a random game like a 1993 September contest between Atlanta and Cincinnati. Chris Berman, Buck Martinez and Peter Gammons are the commentators and the Braves are in contention while the Reds are clearly looking toward the future. The camera pans over to the Reds dugout where we see Tim Costo. Gammons has plenty to say about the 24-year old outfielder/corner infielder including this gem, "Davey Johnson believes he can hit 25-30 home runs in the future." Let's take a look at Costo's career numbers:

YR	AB	HR	RBI	 OPS

1992	36	0	  2	.588

1993	98	3	 12	.617

That's it! Not only did he not go onto to hit 25-30 home runs, he never played another season. If this isn't proof that the game of forecasting baseball prospects is extremely hit-or-miss, then I don't know what is. The Cleveland Indians selected Costo 8th overall in 1990, so there was obviously some promise. He was traded to the Reds for Reggie Jefferson in 1991 and then back to the Indians in 1994 for Mark Lewis. He would never suit up for the Indians on a Major League level.

Surely many baseball fans can name good handful of "can't-miss" prospects that missed. Kevin Maas, Todd Van Poppel, Nigel Wilson and David Nied are among some of the most popular. While Maas had two 20+ HR seasons, Van Poppel was nearly as wretched in the minors as he was in the majors and both Wilson and Nied, the first picks of expansion teams Florida and Colorado respectively, were complete busts.

Being a baseball scout is like being a meteorologist, you can mess up more than half the time and still hold your job. A quick glance of the top 10 picks of any baseball draft will bring as much laughter as surprise. The job saving comes in the fact that for every Bill Haselman, who was picked in the first round by Texas in 1987 and has amassed 47 career home runs in 13 years, there's a Carlos Delgado, who was signed as an Amateur Free Agent in 1988.

There is no exact science to it, but despite many fans knowing that, they expect only the best from their teams and GMs. Luckily for GMs, many fans tend to forget the blown picks after a few years. After all, how many Met fans remember 1993 when their team selected high school pitcher Kirk Presley from Tupelo, MS? Though this isn't always true because as a Tigers fan, I can't seem to forget the 1997 #1 overall selection of Matt Anderson. No Vernon Wells, no Troy Glaus, or Lance Berkman, Randy Wolf (2nd RD) or Tim Hudson (6th RD), but Matt Anderson. The Rice closer further proved why you shouldn't take college closers in the first round of the draft. His career ERA is 6 seasons sits at a bulky 4.89 and the team has tried out several closers since before finally settling with Ugueth Urbina, an early season free agent signee from the Champion Florida Marlins.

Truthfully, I'm not bitter. Baseball and it's interminable draft (50 Rounds!) is sure to produce a series of busts and steals year in and year out. I just wonder what guys like Antone Williamson (#4 pick in '94) or Brien Taylor (#1 in '91) think now. They had it made when the Brewers and Yankees took them that high, but together the two played 24 major league games (all by Williamson). Sure Tim Costo's life may not be completely worthless, but if he is at home watching the same ESPN Classic game I am, he has to wonder what could've been had he made good on the promise that scouts and managers saw to dub him a potential 25-30 home run player.

One week does not a season make...

We've all heard it before, sample size is everything. The Detroit Tigers and Florida Marlins are dominating the league with their .833 ball... through 6 games of 162, or 9%. Of course starting out 5-1 last year would've given the Tigers 11% of their total wins from a year ago (43). How much stock you want to put in very early season success or failure is really your choice and your choice alone. Myself, I choose to temper any and all expectations of greatness for my beloved Tigers. First off delusions of grandeur lead to ill-advised bets and trash talking that simply cannot be backed up.

After all, for all the good that the team has met through six games, be it Carlos Pena's .417, a shellacking of Cy Young Winner Roy Halladay, or Bobby Higginson's 8 RBI, and of course the 5 wins, they've also already encountered their fair share of negatives, Dmitri Young's broken leg, the fact that no starter has an ERA under 4.76, and a team WHIP of 1.40. Things are definitely different in 2004, but if you want to see a team with 85 or more wins, the Motor City is the wrong destination for you this year. More talent, heart and luck will meet you at the gates of Comerica, but in the end it takes a certain level a talent, specifically on the hill to amass such a win total over the course of 162 games.

1092 days is a long time!

No, that's not how long it's been since I was with someone, but nice try. Instead it's how long the Detroit Tigers have gone since being above .500, a position they sit in after their 7-0 shellacking of Roy Halladay and the Toronto Blue Jays to open the season. After getting out the gate 0-2 in 2001, the Tigers swept the Chicago White Sox in Chicago to go to 3-2 on the season. They lost 12 of their next 14 and didn't sniff .500 for another 2 years as they opened the 2002 campaign 0-11 and last year, 0-9. The victory also marked their first opening day win since 2000 when Hideo Nomo and Co. defeated Oakland, 7-4.

Now where do the Tigers go from here? Likely up. You simply cannot quantify the kind of confidence boost that victory, and the fashion it came in, gave this team. Newcomers Rondell White, Ivan Rodriguez, and Fernando Vina were 6-for-14 (.429) with 4 RBIs and 2 HRs. Jason Johnson looked sharp in his Detroit debut, going 6 scoreless with 3 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP. The bullpen combined for 3 clean innings allowing just 4 hits and walking none.

Though excited, I'm not delusional. This team has a long way to come and I cannot expect Johnson to continue to give that kind of effort, but then again, no one expected Runelvys Hernandez to start the season 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in Kansas City last year. I do feel that the hitting can continue as the lineup is solid throughout, but for this team to achieve a record at or near .500, guys like Johnson, Mike Maroth, and Jeremy Bonderman must have exceptional seasons. As of now, the Tigers sit 1-0 after punishing the Cy Young Award Winner from 2003 in his own stadium. The offseason acquisitions showed their stuff early and hopefully can do so often.

Today, Maroth faces Miguel Batista at 7:05 Eastern.

It's Opening Day!

I don't have any cable hooked at my new apartment yet so I'm without either MLB Extra Innings or the pay-per-hear MLB.com Audio Webcasts. Haven't decided which I'll end up with for the summer, but since I sit with neither on today, that leaves watching and constantly refreshing things on CBS Sportsline. Of course that's fine with me right now because it's been all good news for my Tigers.

Carlos Pena went big fly in the 4th to give the Tigers a 1-0 lead and then Pudge left off the 6th with a first pitch home run of his own. The 6th continues with runners on 1st and 2nd and Pena up. Jason Johnson avoided trouble in the bottom of the fifth when Chris Woodward's leadoff triple was wasted. Pena just fan and his third strike may've scraped the ground based on where Sportsline showed it to be. Carlos Guillen is up with 1 out and Dmitri Young on 2nd and Rondell White on 1st.

As I type this, I realize that anyone reading this isn't seeing it update as I type it, but I don't care, I love baseball SO MUCH! Guillen's sitting 3-0. He took the fourth pitch for a strike and then fouled the next two. While waiting for the 7th pitch, I'd like to say that everyone predicting the Tigers to finish 5th in the division may be pleasantly surprised. The pitching certainly needs to play lights out or be improved via trade, but this team has 9 solid hitters in their lineup. Sacks juiced as Guillen walks. Malcontent extraordinaire, Bobby Higginson has a big chance here. He fouled the first pitch off. There seems to be some sort of delay going on, so I'll update you on the other game. Cory Lidle is getting rocked by the Cubs to the surprise of no one. 4-0 after two and half. Corey Patterson has a solo shot and Moises Alou has a 3 RBI double. It looks like a crazy play that resulted in two Tiger runs was the cause for the delay. Here's how CBS tells it:

Higginson reached on fielder's choice to second, Young and White scored, Guillen out at second, Higginson to second on 2nd baseman Hudson's fielding error.

Works for me. 4-0 Detroit. Munson ended the Tigers' half of the 6th with a foul out. Ok, enough of the play-by-play updates. Plenty more on this game in the Opening Day Recap post.

The best laid plans...

Today was my NL Only 5x5 Auction and I flamed out, per usual. I had one goal going in, get Scott Rolen. Let me kill the suspense right now, I didn't get Scott Rolen. I realize that sticking to a plan in an auction is damn near impossible, but I had one simple thing to do to stick to the plan, get SCOTT ROLEN! For some reason I just sat back and let him go for $38. Some may say, well hey that's great as $38 is a lot of money. But when you take into account some of the other prices, his position and second year of the league inflation, and most importantly that I left $14 on the table, I could've easily gone $39-$41. Overall, it might not be the worst team ever assembled, but right now, 5 hours after it, I think it is... Ugh, why do I play fantasy baseball?? For those with the slightest care, I present to you the 2004 Rich or Sporer team:

Cap is $280, asterisk denotes kept

C LoDuca 8
C LaRue 4
1B Thome 36*
3B Larson 12
CI Hammock 7
2B Loretta 6*
SS Larkin 2
MI Cora 1
OF Sosa 38*
OF Giles 38
OF Redman 21
OF Marrero 7
OF Long 5
DH Werth 3
DH Hollandsworth 3

P Penny 10 *
P Day 1*
P Vizcaino 4
P Nen 8
P Reitsma 5
P Ol. Perez 5
P Harang 3
P Koplove 1
P Kolb 10*
P Gagne 28*

No, your eyes don't deceive you, I spent $21 on Tike Redman. TIKE! If you don't think this blog will give extensive coverage to the goings-on of ol' Tike, you've got another thing coming. As I sit and try to cool down from my auction flameout, I realize: TOMORROW IS OPENING DAY... and like real Opening Day, not stupid Japan crap or Sunday Night Baseball between the BoSox and the O's (O's raked, 7-3).

This is just nerdy.

I woke up in a cold sweat this morning after a horrible dream. You see, I took Ichiro! is the first round of my AL Only fantasy keeper league and in my dream he was traded to the Padres for Tony Gwynn. The way our league is set up is that if your guy is traded, you get what he was traded for. It wouldn't have been all bad except that in my dream, Gwynn was retired just as he in real life, but Major League Baseball DIDN'T CARE! They approved the trade so Ichiro! was essentially traded for nothing. I couldn't believe it. I was so mad that my season was just about ruined. Instead of having a high average, great base-stealer, I was stuck with a fat coach that doesn't even play! Things only got weirder. I was all pissed off about this trade, but decided to go on a date with this girl. She kept asking why I was so mad, but I couldn't tell her because it is the mecca of dorkiness. Anyway, I finally tell her. Instead of leaving because I'm such a nerd, she says, "That's f!@$#ed up! Your league should make a stipulation where you still get Ichiro's numbers. That's why I play mixed leagues." I don't remember anything after that, but I have to imagine that I married this lovely, lovely woman. Mixed leagues aside, what a gem she must've been.

I am a complete nerd.