For Rich or Sporer

In Case You Missed It...

I realize that it's shameless self-promotion, but I do have a radio show at the UT Radio show with two other guys and it's about sports, so I figure that if you come here to read things about sports, you may also enjoy listening to things about sports. Every Wednesday from 3-4PM central, you can hear the Paul-Squared & 1 with myself, Paul Kastava and Shawn Whitehouse. Go to KVRX.org and click the Listen link on the upper right to start streaming. We cover just about anything going on in sports at the time, but always seem to come back to Rick Majerus' weight, Shawn's obssession with Dream Job finalist Maggie Haskins and impressions of Dream Job contestant Michael Quigley.

This past week's show started off with myself reading the e-mail Shawn got from Maggie after he asked her about being on the show. She's currently busy with Spring Break, but is interested. I'm actually really hoping she comes on because we have had a grand total of 0 guests so far and she's a mild celebrity. The rest of the show was the American League and we covered each division team-by-team before giving our predictions. Shawn has the Yankees taking the AL and Paulie and I both went with the A's. The only real surprises were Shawn leaving the A's out the playoffs (not TOO surprising considering it was in favor of Boston) and myself picking Cleveland to win the Central (I have no idea). Next week: NL Preview and news about other potential guests.

That is the end of my shameless self-promotion, we now return you to your regularly scheduled blog.

Nostradomus I am not...

Yesterday, I did what could be considered an NL West preview. I'm not really interested in doing an in depth look at each division, but I will give my predictions for the 2004 season. Take them for what they are worth. Some are a little out there, but baseball's been out there for a few years now and this time instead of getting surprised, I figure I'll try to surprise. Without further ado:

AL EAST
Boston Red Sox*
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Pretty much "chalk" for this division, but the talent of the upper tier makes flukes, surprises, and unthinkables disappear. Boston and New York may very well flip flop, but if those two stay relatively healthy, they'll finish 1-2 in that division. Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay aren't very different, but Roy Halladay is worth 3rd place for the Jays. The other two simply don't have an ace like Halladay. Baltimore edges Tampa Bay because their rotation is less sucky. Not better, but less sucky.

AL CENTRAL
Kansas City Royals*
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians

Kansas City gets the nod if Beltran stays and because they can throw out 5 left handed starters. Minnesota after Johan Santana is shaky at best. Detroit in the third slot is a tad homer driven, but their off season acquisitions justify that pick. Chicago will be out early and then make moves for prospects, possibly dealing Magglio Ordonez to Los Angeles for a young stud pitcher. Cleveland just doesn't have the staff or any real star in their lineup to compete.

AL WEST
Anaheim Angels*
Oakland Athletics*
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

Anaheim combines pitching and hitting worthy of the AL East with Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen and Vladimir Guerrero joining the team this season. Oakland still holds the big three in Mulder, Zito and Hudson and even added Mark Redman, but their lineup is one giant question mark outside of Eric Chavez. Seattle might be too old for victory, but could very well sneak up on either the Angels or A's if Jamie Moyer continues to defy Father Time. Texas might drop 9 runs/game on you, but you'll get 10+ just as easily.

NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies*
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Montreal Expos

Based on talent alone, the Phillies should have few problems winning the division in 2004, but they had similar talent a year ago and failed to close the deal. You can never discount the Braves and if J.D. Drew stays healthy, a HUGE if, then they'll be a force as they have been the past 12 years. Jack McKeon and Co. did lose Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mark Redman from their championship but World Series star Josh Beckett returns and Miguel Cabrera is now seasoned. New York and Montreal are lackluster teams, but at least NY has Kazuo Matsui.

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs*
St. Louis Cardinals*
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers

Mark Prior's health offers some pause, but he appears to have a clean bill and as such, I feel that they have the most talent in the division. Houston's offseason was largely overrated and I think that St. Louis already has the lineup in place to overtake and GM Walt Jocketty will find the pitching the lead them to the wildcard. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee will be flip-flopping between the 4, 5 and 6 slots all year. Reds have hitters, Pirates have a decent mix of both and the Brewers have gobs of prospects and Ben Sheets.

NL WEST
San Diego Padres*
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies

Reasons found below, of course.

PLAYOFFS
Oakland over Boston in 5
Anaheim over Kansas City in 4
Oakland over Anaheim in 7

Chicago over San Diego in 3
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 4
Philadelphia over Chicago in 7

Oakland over Philadelphia in 6

AL MVP Garret Anderson, ANA
AL CY YOUNG Curt Schilling, BOS
AL ROY Jeremy Reed, CHW
AL MOY Alan Trammell, DET

NL MVP Brian Giles, SD
NL CY YOUNG Matt Morris, STL
NL ROY Kazuo Matsui, NYM - the precedent is set
NL MOY Larry Bowa, PHI

New Home... for Now.

If you're here then you obviously know that For Rich or Sporer has a new home, at least temporarily. I signed up a 30-day trial with TypePad and so far I really like it. Over the course of the next month, I'll decide whether it's worth the price and whether or not it'll become FRoS's permanent home.

Dodging Runs?

For those of you that don't know, I currently work (or I guess it'd be volunuteer since I don't get paid a dime) at the student radio station on the campus of the University of Texas doing a sports radio show every Wednesday from 3 to 4 PM. I associate with most of the guys outside of the station as well, but no matter how much I consider them to be friends or how much I respect their sports knowledge, I simply cannot understand why several of them have picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL West in 2004. I just cannot envision any scenario where a team that anemic offensively and lacking the prowess from a year ago on the mound can be favored to win their division. It's not like they play in the AL Central. Here are the home run totals from 2004 of their projected infield for 2004:

C Paul Lo Duca - 7
1B Robin Ventura - 14
2B Jolbert Cabrera - 6
3B Adrian Beltre - 23
SS Cesar Izturis - 1
TOTAL - 51

Jim Thome hit 47. Home runs aren't the end all be all to putting up runs, but that's beyond bad. The outfield isn't laced with world beaters either. Shawn Green was hampered by injuries last year, but even if healthy may experience an inordinate amount of walks due to the lack of protection elsewhere. Dave Roberts is the typical "if-only-you-could-steal-first" guy with tons of speed, but without the OBP to match. Juan Encarnacion is a nice addition to the struggling lineup, but he'll be hard pressed to replicate his 94 RBIs from a year ago unless 70 of them are himself. Things will only get funnier in June when they are in an AL park for interleague play and forced to use a Designated Hitter. They may have to change the name to Designated Guy That Will Take Three Pathetic Swings So The Pitcher Can Rest, or DGTWTTPSSTPCR.

Pitching is believed to be the strong suit for this team, but does it remain their saving grace? The loss of Kevin Brown to New York is hardly one to be taken lightly. He takes with him 211 innings of 2.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Newly appointed staff "ace" Hideo Nomo has been putrid this spring and seems to have lost a significant amount of velocity. Odalis Perez remains the premier bargaining chip for any trade talks that center around bringing offense to the Dodgers so any success he has will likely be parlayed into a bad trade for someone like Ken Griffey Jr. Jeff Weaver is a wild card that could return to the success he enjoyed in Detroit or continue to be a headcase good for giving up 5+ runs for every 9 innings pitched. Kaz Ishii does well enough for all the men he puts on base. Had he qualified last year, Ishii's 1.56 WHIP would have placed him ahead of just Jason Jennings (1.65) and Damian Moss (1.67) for worst amongst starting pitchers with 160 or more innings pitched. The final rotation spot sits on the shoulders of rookie Edwin Jackson. The 20-year old righty has been unspectacular in spring, but as of right now will be the fifth starter.

So if not the Dodgers, then who? Certainly not the reigning champion San Francisco Giants. Their lineup is better for one back acne-laced reason only and their pitching is a big question mark with Jason Schmidt and Robb Nen both uncertain and not much to brag about behind them. The Colorado Rockies still have the misfortune of playing in Colorado rendering many pitchers helpless at best and useless at worst. They should post runs per usual, but the Shawn Chacon Experiment as closer is iffy and they trot out a 4th or 5th level starter each day:

Shawn Estes
Jason Jennings
Joe Kennedy
Scott Elarton
Chin-hui Tsao

Maybe the Diamondbacks return to prominence, but that rests solely on the arm of 40-year old Randy Johnson. Another injury-riddled season for Johnson would probably put an end to any playoff hopes the Diamondbacks have. Even if Johnson stays healthy and moves back toward the dominance he and Arizona fans are used to, 24-year old Brandon Webb must avoid a sophomore slump. At this point in time, the back end of the rotation that features Elmer Dessens, Shane Reynolds and Steve Sparks simply cannot be counted on to pick up any slack left by Johnson and Webb. Though old, this lineup contains several parts that will do an adequate job to protect premier 1st baseman Richie Sexson, acquired via trade from the Brewers. Veterans Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finely, and Robert Alomar will take pressure of Sexson throughout the lineup. Oft-doubted Shea Hillenbrand will need to improve on his less-than-stellar Arizona numbers (.267/.302/.482) to shirk the critics. If everything falls correctly, like it did during the World Series run 3 years ago, the Diamondbacks are a contender, but my favorite for the NL West are the San Diego Padres.

The Padres composed a solid balance of youth and age starting with the trade for Brian Giles late last season up through the signing of Jay Payton from Colorado. This isn't a flawless team, though. They lack a true leadoff man and will do it the Billy Beane way with Sean Burroughs leading off for now. The Oakland Athletics let Jeremy Giambi lead off 2 years ago because of his knack for getting on base. He posted .257/.375/.419 before being traded to Philadelphia. Burroughs had moderate success from the leadoff slot in 2003, posting .286/.362/.373 numbers. Unorthodox leadoff man or not, the ability to put runs on the board consistently will likely come down to how healthy Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko can stay in 2004. The two combined for just 180 games in 2003. These premier power sources can make the Padre lineup feared throughout the league if they are able to contribute day in and day out.

Their dynamic staff also intrigued me enough to place them atop the West this season. David Wells, for all his shortcomings, seems to continue to win regardless. He and Sterling Hitchcock sandwich three youngsters that will lead the Padres to the playoffs. Brian Lawrence didn't have a great season last year (10-15, 4.19), but he was dominant in the last two months posting ERAs of 2.53 and 2.78 in August and September. Both Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton look ready to make the leap into bonafide starters in 2004. Though just 22, Peavy was impressive in 2003 with his 12-11 record to go with his 4.11 ERA and 7.21 Ks/9. Eaton managed to stay healthy and put together his best season yet. At 26, the Padres can no longer accept greatness once every three or four starts as progress, he must be a reliable starter. As a fifth starter, Hitchcock is ok. Being left-handed can make you that way and the Padres will only ask for consistent play, something that fifth spot lacked a year ago. A lot of this prediction rides on the health of Trevor Hoffman, too. He pitched just 9 games a year ago. All indications are that Hoffman is as healthy as can be expected and will be available to close for the Padres.

Hmm, what started out as a rant against the Dodgers for their pathetic offense kind of turned into a NL West Preview. I hope you enjoyed. Continue to use this site to view For Rich or Sporer as I've signed up a 30-day trial with TypePad. So far, so good.